Labour trailing in british local elections
8/27/14 – We have to mention some interesting news in this race which will make you feel uncomfortable. In order for us to count the polls in the UK we would need an audience of at least a million people and not just the tens of thousands of voters that the Tories have managed to pick up in previous elections. So, the chances of this happening are very slim to none. Also, I’m glad you pointed out that a good number of the voters have already voted, so my calculations are that it is safe to assume that Theresa May will pick up around 80-90% of the vote. If she is the Prime Minister and loses, a hung parliament will continue to be held for a bit longer as people who voted remain end up voting jarvees.comLabour.
The Tories will lose
The following chart shows the number of votes that are projected to go to Labour:
With a small Labour win in 2015, this has the potential to change Labour’s fortunes and allow us to re-enter parliament with a significant majority. However, the biggest worry here is whether the Lib Dems will be able to gajarvees.comin as much support as they did in 2011 – many Lib Dems in my office have told me recently that they are worried that the party hasn’t received enough support from their base and would end up backing the Tories instead.
Labour will win
Now in order for Theresa May to be able to get enough Liberal Democrats onto the ballot box, the Lib Dems have a lot of work ahead of them. We need a number of constituencies in which Labour would have a very low enough voting share that it is impossible for the party to win. These are the most likely:
London – West Deptford – Labour have the second highest number of votes this year, while Labour also get around 6% of the seats in the ward
Liverpool – South West – I would expect the Lib Dem vote in this constituency to be around 75%